Donald Carney

at March 07, 2026

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has said neighbouring countries will no longer be targeted, unless an attack originates from there, as the war launched by the United States and Israel, which triggered sustained retaliation from Tehran across the Gulf and beyond, enters its second week.

The Iranian interim leadership council approved the motion on Friday, Pezeshkian said on Saturday.
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In remarks carried by Iranian media, the president also apologised to neighbouring countries for the strikes that took place in recent days.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman, all the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations, have been targeted due to the presence of US assets within and around their borders. Iraq, Jordan, Azerbaijan and Turkiye have also been caught in the crosshairs.

In the Gulf, there have been deaths, damage and major disruption to flights, the closure of airspace, and a heavy knock-on impact on oil and gas production reverberating across the world.

Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said exports from the Gulf region could come to a halt “within weeks” if the war on Iran continues to escalate, throwing global energy markets into turmoil.

Al-Kaabi told The Financial Times (FT) newspaper in an interview published on Friday that if the war continues for weeks, “GDP growth around the world will be impacted”.

“Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply,” al-Kaabi was quoted as saying.

The only US fatalities in the war so far came when Iran attacked a US command centre in Kuwait, killing six.

More than 1,200 Iranians have been killed in US-Israeli strikes in the first week of the war.

at March 06, 2026

The U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday has authorised the sale of Russian oil to India for a period of 30 days, an effort meant to relieve price pressures caused by the ongoing conflict with Iran.

The war on Iran begun by the US and Israel has made it difficult to ship oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for India and purportedly responsible for 40% of its crude supply.

The Treasury Department said that crude oil and petroleum products from Russia that are already on ships can be unloaded in India from March 5 to April 4.

Last year, the Trump administration had imposed a 25% ‘penalty’ tariff on Indian exports citing the purchase of Russian crude, atop an already heavy 25% ‘reciprocal’ tariff. This penalty was withdrawn earlier this year but Trump had said that his government could consider re-imposing the levy were New Delhi to “directly or indirectly” resume intake.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote on social media that this was a “deliberately short-term measure” and would not be of “significant financial benefit” to Russia.

“President Trump’s energy agenda has resulted in oil and gas production reaching the highest levels ever recorded. To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. This deliberately short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government as it only authorizes transactions involving oil already stranded at sea,” Bessent wrote.

Bessent wrote that the US expects India to hike US oil purchase.

“India is an essential partner of the United States, and we fully anticipate that New Delhi will ramp up purchases of US oil. This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran’s attempt to take global energy hostage,” Bessent said.

Trump also indicated on Thursday that the Treasury Department would make efforts to relieve price pressures, but it was unclear if he was referring to the temporary lifting of a ban on Russian oil tied to the country’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

The data intelligence firm Kpler has noted that renewed access to Russian barrels could allow Indian refiners to lift volumes above the recent baseline of roughly 1 million barrels per day and potentially rebuild flows closer to pre sanction levels, but that the benefit may prove limited. “India remains heavily reliant on Middle Eastern supply, while rising competition from Chinese buyers for discounted Russian cargoes could narrow price advantages and constrain the scale of additional inflows,” it has said.

Union petroleum and natural gas minister Hardeep Singh Puri in a media interaction on March 3 had said that Indian energy firms “now have access to energy supplies that are not routed through the Strait of Hormuz” and which would “help mitigate supplies that may be temporarily affected” by the conflict. But Puri did not elaborate on the source of these cargoes.

Roman Babushkin, Deputy Chief of the Russian Embassy in India, has noted in the aftermath of the US decision that both sides are keeping “all options open on the table.”

This decision has led Russia to rejoice, but the fact that India’s energy security depends on permissions from a foreign country has led to impassioned outrage.

On X, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has shared his own prescient parliament speech from February 2026, in which he had said, “The US will tell us who we can or cannot buy oil from – If it’s Russia or Iran, the US will decide. But our Prime Minister will not decide.”

In the new post, Gandhi has said, “India’s foreign policy emerges from the collective will of our people. It should be rooted in our history, our geography, and our spiritual ethos based on Satya and Ahimsa. What we are witnessing today is not policy. It is the result of the exploitation of a compromised individual.”

Other opposition leaders have also posted on X against the move.

at March 05, 2026

This photograph shows a page on the Marinetraffic website thats shows commercial ship traffic on the edge of the Strait of Hormuz near the Iranian coast on March 4, 2026.

Julien De Rosa | Afp | Getty Images

After slapping 25% “penalty” tariffs on India for buying Russian crude — revoked last month — the U.S. on Thursday issued a 30-day waiver to New Delhi for purchasing crude from Moscow as the Iran war upends global supplies.

The West Texas Intermediate oil surged 8.51%, or $6.35, to close at $81.01 per barrel on Thursday in the biggest single day gain since May 2020. Global benchmark Brent rose 4.93%, or $4.01, to settle at $85.41 per barrel.

The waiver on purchasing Russian oil will help ease supply worries globally, as India is the world’s fourth biggest refiner and and fifth largest exporter of petroleum products. Brent and WTI crude fell over 1% on Friday, and were last trading at $84.42 and $79.92 per barrel, respectively.

New Delhi, also the world’s third largest oil importer, had been replacing Russian oil purchases with supply from Middle East, experts said, but with the conflict affecting energy supplies from the Gulf countries, it is starting to shore up energy from Moscow.

“I’ve heard that Indian refiners have been actively seeking prompt Russian crude supplies since last weekend,” said Muyu Xu, senior research analyst for crude at energy data tracker Kpler, adding that based on “market chatter,” New Delhi is likely to have bought up to 6-8 million barrels of Russian oil over the past 2–3 days.

Iran War supply disruptions could result in India purchasing more Russian crude: Analyst

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This “short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit” to Russia as it only allows transactions of oil already stranded at sea, the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessant said in a post on X.

The U.S. government is taking steps to curb rising oil prices, including offering political risk insurance for tankers transiting the Gulf. U.S. crude prices have climbed about 20% this week on the back of the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

“Further action to reduce pressure on oil is imminent and ... in the long-term, the actions we’re taking will dramatically increase the stability of the region and oil prices,” U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday.

“It [the waiver] is a relief valve, in view of the loss of nearly 20 million barrel per day of crude from the Gulf producers,” said Vandana Hari, CEO of energy research firm Vanda Insights, adding that the 30-day waiver was “not nearly enough” and Washington continues to put “band aids on a gunshot wound.”

Hari expects Brent crude to continue “creeping higher than the $80s” as she feels chances of the Hormuz blockade being lifted quickly are “extremely dim.” The traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway used for 20% of global oil flows, remains at a standstill following Iranian warnings and surging insurance costs for shippers.

″Our data shows that no laden crude tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz since last weekend, including vessels that may be bound for India,” said Xu.
Impact on India

India currently has “access to about 100 million barrels,” enough to cover up to 45 days of crude demand, Prateek Pandey, head of APAC oil and gas research at energy intelligence firm Rystad Energy, told CNBC’s “Inside India” on Thursday.

Pandey said that Indian refineries will not be impacted over the next three to four weeks, but “there will be concerns,” if the disruption in Middle East continues beyond that.

Sourcing from alternate destinations such as Venezuela poses challenges as these cargoes take almost a month to reach India, he said.

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In August last year, India was hit with a 50% U.S. tariffs, including 25% as punishment for purchasing Russian oil. Last month, the penalty was removed conditional to India cutting back imports from Moscow and buy more American energy supplies. Washington warned it could reinstate the penalty, if India resumed buying Russian oil.

“I have not yet seen any increase in US crude arrivals into India,” said Xu adding that any pickup in New Delhi buying American oil following the trade deal will get reflected in the April or May data.

Donald Carney

Saturday, March 7, 2026

Iran to halt strikes on neighbours unless attacks from there: Pezeshkian

Friday, March 6, 2026

Trump Administration 'Allows' India to Buy Russian Oil for 30 days

Thursday, March 5, 2026

U.S. offers India a 30-day waiver for buying Russian oil as Iran war deepens energy supply worries

Iran to halt strikes on neighbours unless attacks from there: Pezeshkian

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